Carbon emissions - Modelled fleet data
Back to Resource HubWhat is it?
A dataset showing the forecast number and type of vehicles in the fleet to 2050. It is based on outputs from TfN’s NoCarb model, with base years of 2018 and 2023. It includes two Department for Transport scenarios to show how the fleet may change over time.
How is it useful?
Use it to understand how the vehicle fleet could evolve and what this means for carbon emissions. It helps you test decarbonisation scenarios, assess the impact of vehicle mix on emissions, and plan for future infrastructure needs. You can use it to support long-term strategy, align with national scenarios, and build evidence for climate-focused plans and business cases.
Dataset code
05104
Licence
Open Government Licence 3.0
Limitations
We know that company vehicles are registered within this data, but the data from DVLA doesn't label this. This is most noticeable when a lease company has 1000s of vehicles registered to one address
Attributions
Department for Transport. (2022). National Travel Survey, 2002-2021: Special Licence Access. [data collection]. 11th Edition. UK Data Service. SN: 7553, DOI: http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-7553-11
Department for Transport. (2019). National Transport Model version (NTMv5)
Department for Transport. (2013). National Trip End Model (NTEM) Version 8 has been used on Open Government License. (https://www.data.gov.uk/dataset/11bc7aaf-ddf6-4133-a91d-84e6f20a663e/national-trip-end-model-ntem).
Office for National Statistics. (2023). 2011 Census Microdata Individual Safeguarded Sample (Local Authority): England and Wales. [data collection]. UK Data Service. SN: 7682, DOI: http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-7682-1